Global oil demand rebounds in 2021 and Asia accounts for 77% of oil demand growth through 2025. Oil remains the lifeblood of any war effort today and drives many components of the modern military complex including aircraft, vehicles, warships, small arms, and general industry. The situation remains very fluid, however, making it extremely difficult to assess the full impact of the virus. Oil demand growth slows because demand for diesel and gasoline nears a plateau as new efficiency standards are applied to internal combustion engine vehicles and electric vehicles hit the market. Nevertheless, investors continue to ratchet up pressure on the industry to sharpen its focus on sustainability issues while activists, especially in Europe and North America, seek to hinder new oil developments. As a consequence, Asian oil import requirements in 2025 surpass 31 mb/d. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. Global oil demand will grow by 5.7 mb/d over the 2019-25 period at an average annual rate of 950 kb/d. As a result, world oil demand is now expected to contract by around 9.8 million barrels per day in 2020, compared to last year. But growth in non-OPEC production is set to lose momentum after a few years, indicating a greater role for OPEC+ countries. Efforts to improve the sustainability of the plastics industry will run up against the steady increase in demand from consumers in developing countries. However, demand from the aviation sector will continue to suffer from the contraction in global air travel. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). Total non-OPEC oil supply rises by 4.5 mb/d to reach 69.5 mb/d by 2025. The EIA estimates global oil and liquid fuels demand will be 92.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020. With uncertainties over demand, supply, investment strategies and business models, the global oil industry faces major challenges. Our assessment is that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO 2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%. At the same time, global energy transitions are affecting the oil industry: companies must balance the investments needed to ensure sufficient supplies against the necessity of cutting emissions. Rystad Energy is forecasting that oil demand will decrease 10.9 percent, or 10.8 million barrels per day (MMbpd), year over year in 2020. That's down by 0.23 million bpd from the previous month's estimate. Crude oil is extracted and undergoes distillation to break down the liquid into various products. It expects demand to increase by 5.8 million b/d in 2021. It overtook Black Sea ports sending out Russian and Caspian crude, and Nigeria. Looking beyond the short term, the oil market looks comfortably supplied through 2025. Some of the smallest consumers of crude oil are Niue at 60 barrels per day, Saint Helena at 80 barrels per day, the Falkland Islands at 300 barrels per day, and Nauru and Kiribati, which both consume about 400 barrels per day. It is estimated that the world consumes over 97 million barrels of oil per day. In its monthly report, OPEC pegged 2020 oil demand at 89.99 million barrels a day, a decline of 9.77 million barrels a day from 2019 and slightly below its previous estimate. “Our OPEC outlook for 2020 oil demand is now slightly above 90 million bpd. The majority of crude oil produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oils. The impact of clean energy transitions on oil supply remains unclear, with many companies prioritising short-cycle projects for the coming years. Alaska, Texas, North Dakota, New Mexico, and Oklahoma are the largest oil-producing states in the U.S. Global attention is increasingly focused on the need to accelerate clean energy transitions in order to mitigate the risks of climate change. Oil 2020 examines the key issues in demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025. This is about 20% of the world’s total oil consumption. These alternatives are outlined in the March edition of the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report, which is released in tandem with this medium-term report. Brazil, Guyana, Iraq and the UAE also deliver impressive gains. This assumes that there is no change to sanctions on Iran or Venezuela. Following a contraction in 2020 and an expected sharp rebound in 2021, global oil demand growth is set to weaken as consumption of transport fuels increases more slowly. Bans imposed on single-use plastics and recycling, even if fully implemented, will displace only a very modest amount of oil demand. Here are the 10 countries with the highest oil consumption: The World Factbook Refined Petroleum Products - Consumption. “This represents a sharp decline of nearly 10 million b/d from where … On the demand side, growth in 2019 was significantly weaker than expected and new vehicle efficiency measures have started to weigh on transport fuels. This is followed by China, which consumes 11.75 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 12% of total consumption, and India, which consumes about 4.49 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4.6% of consumption. With its major emissions footprint, the energy sector – including the oil and gas industry – is at the heart of the matter. The United States is both the largest producer of oil and the largest consumer. Brazil’s surge in oil demand is a welcome development for a global market that’s been forced to push back expectations for when energy demand might get back to pre-virus levels. Through 2025, global oil demand rises by a total of 5.7 mb/d, with China and India accounting for about half of growth. Crude oil produces many beneficial products that have improved the quality of life for people around the world. For 2020, OPEC predicts total oil demand will be slashed by nearly 10% — nowhere near the large-scale pivot away from fossil fuels that scientists say is necessary to fight climate change. In 2018, the United States became the largest producer of crude oil, surpassing both Russia and Saudi Arabia, producing about 12.1 million barrels per day. In the second quarter, an improving situation in China offsets deteriorating demand elsewhere. In this context, governments do not need to take strong containment measures and use of transport remains closer to normal. The pace of expansion in the United States is slowing as independent producers cut spending and scale back drilling activity in response to pressure from investors. Global oil supply looks comfortable through the forecast period. In 2020, global oil demand is expected to contract for the first time since the global recession of 2009. The estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use stand in sharp contrast to a slight rise in the contribution of renewables. The International Energy Agency, in a forecast that already looks dated, said on March 9 that 2020 oil demand would contract by about 90,000 barrels a day. Petrochemical feedstocks LPG/ethane and naphtha will drive around half of all oil products demand growth, helped by continued rising plastics demand and cheap natural gas liquids in North America. Oil reserves denote the amount of crude oil located in a particular region that can be recovered using current technological constraints and at a cost that is feasible at the current oil prices. Ultimately, the outlook for the oil market will depend on how quickly governments move to contain the coronavirus outbreak, how successful their efforts are, and what lingering impact the global health crisis has on economic activity. The world’s proven reserves are equivalent to about 46.6 times its annual consumption levels, meaning that the Earth has about 47 years of oil left at the current consumption levels. In 2018, the world used approximately 99.3 million barrels of oil per day. The increase reflects OPEC's announced potential increases to production targets and production increases in Libya. A progressive recovery takes place through the second half of 2020. This is a sharp reduction on the 1.5 mb/d annual pace seen in the past 10-year period. While ensuring it is able to continue to meet growing demand, it must also address the need to curb emissions and improve sustainability. In this case, global oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day in 2020. Thank you for subscribing. The United States leads the way as the largest source of new supply. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 12 cents, or 0.25%, higher at $48.52 per barrel. In a decarbonising world, refiners face a big challenge from weaker transport fuel demand. At the time of publication, the high uncertainty over the course of the global epidemic has led us to propose two alternatives to our base case for demand in 2020: a more pessimistic one in which global measures are less successful in containing the virus, and an optimistic case in which it is contained quickly. Oil demand in 2020 is expected to fall by 8.1 mb/d, the largest in history, before recovering by 5.7 mb/d in 2021. Current oversupply and the impact of COVID-19 on demand should not be a reason for complacency when it comes to security of supply. For 2021, OPEC sees demand rising by 6.3 million b/d on an annual basis, lower than the 6.5 million it estimated last month and the 7.0 million it estimated in July 2020. From 2022, the US loses steam allowing OPEC producers from the Middle East to turn up the taps to help keep the oil market in balance. Global oil demand is expected to continue to decline in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, constricting traveling and economic activity. As for OPEC, even though sanctions and economic distress have wiped out 2.5 mb/d of production from Iran and Venezuela since 2017, effective crude oil capacity rises by 1.2 mb/d to 34.1 mb/d. On the supply side, geopolitics remain a wild card. “The oil futures curve flip into contango in March 2020 made it profitable for traders to purchase relatively cheap crude barrels to store at sea, in order to sell forward. Other non-OPEC producers, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, increase exports too. Coronavirus lockdowns in Europe and weakening consumption in the Americas will result in global oil demand taking a larger hit in 2020 than previously expected, the Organization of … Following a record increase of more than 2.2 mb/d in 2018, the pace of the US expansion slowed to 1.6 mb/d last year as independent producers cut spending and scaled back drilling activity. The top ten consumers of oil account for 60% of the world’s total oil consumption. Oil demand for 2020 seen as 92.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 400,000 bpd from last month. In 2019 the US Gulf Coast became the largest seaborne crude oil export hub outside the Middle East, supplying 2.6 mb/d to world markets. In addition, the lack of demand for oil resulted in cargoes being stuck at destination ports, … In our base case, that assumes $60/bbl Brent, growth is expected to grind to a halt in the early 2020s and production will plateau around 20 mb/d – 2.5 mb/d higher than in 2019. 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