As a leveraged product losses are able to exceed initial deposits and capital is at risk. An additional signal in favor of the growth of quotations and prices for Brent oil will be a test of the rising trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). We can reasonably expect crude to trade in a wide range between $43 and $75. Resistance around the 46.40 to 47.00 USD price levels could prove to be very important. Those are the ones we want to forecast and be invested in. A well balanced market is what the OPEC wrote, and then a few months later one of the biggest crude oil crashes in history of mankind started. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. } position: relative; .text310 span{ But we also do publish other forecasts. We want to go back to the year 2014. December looks like it may be a promising speculative bullish month for crude oil. Think twice, we will make the point in the next section that this does not work when really big moves are taking place. So no, supply demand is not a reliable factor in forecasting the crude oil price for 2020, 2021 nor any other year! @media all and (max-width: 450px) { display: contents; As seen on below chart, our leading indicator for global markets, the EURO peaked at its major secular resistance right before the crude oil price crash started. And as investors we are ONLY interested in big moves, not the peanuts. October 2020: Monthly prices December 2020 (XLS) Executive summary October 2020 (PDF) A shock like no other: The impact of COVID-19 on commodity markets April 2020: Annual prices December 2020 (XLS) Price forecasts October 2020 (PDF) Set up to fail? Moreover, inventories in the US – the only OECD country with positive demand growth – stand at high levels. In other words we conclude that supply demand is useless in forecasting the big moves in crude oil. The EIA forecast that Brent crude oil prices will average $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020 and $49/b in 2021. font-size: 18px !important; } Below this, the market is likely to go after a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 29.40. Many investors tend to stick to facts from the past. @media all and (max-width: 662px) { And it will continue to be there for a while until a new pattern is visible. Crude oil price forecast 2020: U.S. Energy Information Administration: $57/b by Q2 of 2020: Crude oil price forecast 2020: Marketwatch notes several analysts: $100/b in 2020: Crude oil price forecast 2020 (no other predictions published so far) (no other predictions published so far) Oil Price forecast for December 2020. We absolutely recommend to subscribe to our free newsletter in order to receive future updates. After the breakdown of crude in 2018 we conclude that this market is in no-man’s land. There is sufficient evidence that higher economic growth in the current quarter will materialize, helping to compensate for the subdued performance of the global economy in 1Q14. This perception may attract more bullish action during the month of December. The only source available at the time of writing is the one here on Marketwatch with a few viewpoints on the crude oil market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), publisher of the 2014 global energy report, did not refer to anything like a market imbalance! Register for free at FX Academy, the first online interactive trading academy that offers courses on Technical Analysis, Trading Basics, Risk Management and more prepared exclusively by professional Forex traders. .button310 span { This may start in 2020, but will likely morph into something more ‘tangible’ in 2021. padding: 10px 10px; Let’s start with our conclusion. align-items: center; } padding: 0 10px; top: -10px; Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Oil - US Crude for the first time since Dec 09, 2020 when Oil - … Top notch forecasting with gold price forecast, many stock predictions, cryptocurrency charts. Watch the Euro, and how it behaves in the 105 to 110 area, for a buy signal in crude. .text310 span{ background: rgb(19,19,21); This is our forecasted crude oil price for the coming years. If these marks are broken higher, speculative forces may begin to believe WTI crude oil has the capability to challenge the 50.00 mark. Once that happens it will send bullish energy to crude oil. max-width: 2000px; } margin: 0 0 -9px !important; What happened? margin: 15px 0 15px 0; For investors all that matters is when crude turns bullish. WTI crude oil forecast for 2023 – We can expect crude oil prices to drop below the $ 60 resistance level, in order to complete a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to $ 40.72. text-align: center; background: linear-gradient(90deg, rgba(19,19,21,1) 32%, rgba(159,55,44,1) 90%); margin: 0px auto; In other words quality is much more important than quantity when it comes to forecast the future direction of crude oil. Based on our forecasts, including this crude oil price forecast for 2020 and 2021 we try to understand which markets may become hot in the next 24 months. We commit to never sharing or selling your personal information. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 27.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020. No matter the reason, it appears WTI crude oil has seen the last of its darkest days which it experienced in spades during the month of April when it sank below 20.00 USD. Overall, the ongoing rise in supply would be adequate to satisfy the growth in oil demand in 2H14, resulting in a well-balanced market. Crude Oil Price Update – Trader Reaction to $49.07 Will Determine Strength of Rally The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Further, the continuation of the rise in the oil rate to the area above the level of 54.05. This came in two months before the historic crash of -80% started! Please make sure your comments are appropriate and that they do not promote services or products, political parties, Any reasonable person would say that supply and demand was way out of synch, and this would have caused the price of crude to crash. font-weight: lighter; This price is used as the basis to arrive at the remaining domestic crude reference points, using price offsets based on long-term historical data. Oil and Gas. Crude Oil Price Forecast, Crude Oil (CL) price prediction. The answer may be a combination of all the listed factors. } .advbox.advboxstyle>strong:first-child { text-align: center; Brent crude oil prices will average $41.42 per barrel in 2020 and $49.53 per barrel in 2021 according to the most recent forecast from the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. width: 100%; In contrast, the Russian energy minister suggested that if crude oil prices rise above $50 per … Prices plummeted in the second quarter, with one day in April even closing at $9/b for Brent prices internationally and -$37/b for WTI at Cushing in the U.S. -webkit-flex-direction: column; font-weight: bold; His work appeared on major financial outlets like FinancialSense, MarketWatch, ... Email: taki.tsaklanos@gmail.com. Nobody was able to forecast the crude oil price crash purely based on supply demand data. .right310 { Around the same time we saw this supply/demand report from the ? Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. } Right now the Euro is not bullish, it is trending down. That’s because crude has a track record of rising aggressively, but it only does so if and when it breaks out. Many investing tips and crypto market analysis. Or, is the stellar global risk appetite that is being experienced in financial assets indicating that investors are optimistic about the economic picture because of potential coronavirus vaccines? Second, the crude oil chart itself. height: auto; Certainly, crude oil could see downside pressure develop, and it is a certainty that reversals lower will occur. Crude fell some 75% in less than 18 months. The average for the month 49.49. Anyone interested to invest in crude oil can check this guide. .advbox { } order: 0; And as investors we are ONLY interested in big moves, not the peanuts. .button310 span{ .left310 { In order to provide you with this free service we receive advertising fees from brokers, including some of those listed within our rankings and on this page. font-size: 17px; Brent Crude as it is predicted that prices could average $39.05 in Q3, according to a poll. Risk Disclaimer: DailyForex will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information contained within this website including market news, analysis, trading signals and Forex broker reviews. The Euro chart has a much more reliable setup in terms of chart pattern(s) to help forecast. padding: 2px 2px; } If anything the very long term crude chart shows a very wide range of $20 to $120 in the last 5 decades. float: left; padding: 5px; We don’t expect this to happen in 2020 nor 2021 though. 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